What does the timing of Turkey’s threats and attacks reveal?

Turkey-backed armed groups reportedly affiliated with the Syrian Transitional Government continue their attacks on civilian residential areas in Aleppo, targeting Kurdish-populated neighborhoods including Sheikh Maqsoud (Şêxmeqsûd), Ashrafieh (Eşrefiyê), and Bani Zaid (Benî Zêd). According to available information, indiscriminate and heavy bombardment has so far killed three civilians, including two women, while 17 others have been injured, among them children aged two and three.

Local sources said the attacks struck Zihor Street, the Castello Road area, and the Shiqeyef zone in Sheikh Maqsoud; the Shihan area west of Ashrafieh, along with the Leremon and Zeytoun junctions; and the Tirkawi Junction in Bani Zaid. Attacks are ongoing, with unmanned aerial vehicles continuing to fly over the neighborhoods as bombardments persist.

Armed mercenary groups and rising tension

Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh, neighborhoods at the center of the escalating tension in recent weeks, once again came under attack today by armed mercenary groups known as al-Hamzat Division, al-Amshat Division, and Nureddin Zengi Movement. Although these groups present themselves as structures affiliated with the Syrian Transitional Government and its Ministry of Defense, developments on the ground indicate a reality that goes far beyond these claims.

Observations that these groups are trained, armed, and operate under military and intelligence supervision by Turkey, and are positioned in line with Ankara’s regional strategic objectives, point to the fact that the attacks are not “local and uncontrolled actions,” but part of a broader and deliberate course of action.

Damascus talks and the timing of the attacks

The timing of the attacks drew attention as they came immediately after contacts between the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria and the Damascus authorities. After a long pause, a delegation consisting of Mazloum Abdi, the General Commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), along with SDF General Command members Sozdar Haci and Sipan Hemo, traveled to Damascus on 4 January to continue talks under the heading of military integration. The SDF later announced that the parties had agreed to continue the discussions within an institutional framework until an outcome is reached.

The attacks that followed immediately afterward reinforced assessments among the public that these actions were not coincidental but were aimed at sabotaging the ongoing dialogue process.

Political statements and their reflections on the ground

Statements made by Devlet Bahceli, chair of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), on the day the attacks took place also drew attention. Addressing developments in Syria and directly targeting the SDF, Bahceli adopted an explicit language of threat, saying, “Either through agreement or by force, Syria’s unitary structure and its political and territorial integrity must be established.”

Shortly after these remarks, civilian residential areas in Aleppo were once again targeted, making the link between the timing of the attacks and political messaging more visible.

The attacks on Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh go beyond isolated military incidents and are being carried out as part of a centralized strategy. The aim is to disrupt the developing contacts between the Autonomous Administration and Damascus, deepen instability in the region, and create new grounds for conflict to open space for occupation policies.

Recent statements by Turkey’s Ministry of National Defense, declaring that “if Damascus makes a plan and takes initiative, we will provide all kinds of support,” are also being interpreted within this framework. These remarks are viewed as significant clues regarding the political will behind the attacks on the ground.

Taken together, these developments indicate that the assaults are not “uncontrolled actions by local groups,” but rather the product of centralized planning. They further reveal that the attacks are not merely a local security issue, but part of a broader policy aimed at reshaping regional balances.

SDF and the Autonomous Administration issued warnings

SDF Press Center announced that armed groups linked to the occupying Turkish state and to Damascus carried out attacks targeting civilian residential areas around Tishrin Dam, specifically at Syraitel Hill and in the Deir Hafir area of the Tabqa Canton, using mortars, heavy weapons, and suicide drones. The SDF said the attacks pose a direct threat to civilian life and warned that the safety of residents is at serious risk.

The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria called for an immediate halt to the attacks, accountability for those responsible, and a return to dialogue. The statement underscored Syria’s multicultural mosaic and stressed the need for an inclusive political solution.