The large-scale airstrikes carried out by the United States and Israel for 40 days targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure, transportation networks, and nuclear facilities have paused following a 14-day temporary ceasefire reached as of April 8, 2026. However, Israel continues its attacks on Lebanon. Mustafa Yalçıner commented on United States President Donald Trump’s decision to step back from his threats to “destroy” Iran and return to the negotiating table. He stated that Tehran’s success in closing the Strait of Hormuz, along with the damage inflicted by its missiles on Israel and United States bases in the region, pushed Washington into a strategic impasse. Yalçıner also noted that China’s moves to secure its energy corridor and the approaching United States elections compelled Trump to accept the ceasefire, emphasizing that the emerging situation demonstrates the limits of imperialist power.
Claims that the United States is ‘invincible’ proved unfounded
Mustafa Yalçıner emphasized that in critical situations, it is necessary to look not at the rhetoric of the parties but at the concrete realities on the ground, stating that the United States has reached a point where it can no longer sustain the attack it initiated in disregard of both national and international law. Yalçıner said: “In critical situations, one does not look at what the parties say, but at the facts on the ground. The United States launched an attack without consulting anyone and without complying with any rule of international law, or even its own national law. At this stage, the United States has reached a point where it can no longer sustain this attack; this is the clear reality. Iran did not want the war; the United States initiated it but is now unable to continue. Regardless of how anyone explains it, this is the situation before us. There are several reasons why the United States cannot sustain the war. First and foremost is Iran’s capacity to endure.
In addition, Iranian missiles are now reaching their targets, causing significant casualties among both Israel and United States forces in the region. Most importantly, Iran has succeeded in closing the Strait of Hormuz. This situation is preventing not only oil and natural gas but also industrial inputs from reaching the world. These were Iran’s critical advantages. On the other hand, the United States is approaching the November midterm elections. Trump became president with the promise of ending wars, but he did the opposite. Now, in this respect, he finds himself in a difficult position and, so to speak, has been compelled to heed advice. This situation has shown that claims portraying the United States as an ‘invincible armada’ are unfounded. Iran has once again demonstrated the reality that imperialism is a ‘paper tiger.’ Of course, there is not yet a peace agreement that has been formally signed, and the parties may be making different statements, but this is the reality on the ground. The ten-day ceasefire will most likely continue because no one remains alongside Trump except Israel. The United States has never been this isolated before.”
Iran succeeded in forcing the United States to peace
Yalçıner stated that Iran’s military strategy was not based on directly defeating the United States but on compelling it to the negotiating table by rendering it incapable of continuing the war, emphasizing that Tehran had been successful in achieving this objective. He said: “From the very beginning, Iran built its war strategy on this framework. It was aware that it could not militarily defeat the United States when confronted with it, and it did not attempt to establish superiority over Washington’s air power or aircraft carriers. For instance, it did not make major investments in an aircraft fleet and limited the protection of its airspace to surface-to-air missile systems. However, what Iran primarily sought was to render the United States unable to wage war and thereby force it to make peace, and it succeeded in doing so. I make these assessments as someone who does not support the Iranian regime. Unfortunately, this situation has also strengthened the regime’s position with the acceptance of the ceasefire following the American attack. A perception of victory has now emerged that will unite the public around the regime, and the ceasefire is being celebrated as a victory both in Lebanon and across Iran. Most likely, a process will unfold in which both sides find a middle ground.”
The Gulf region cannot be considered without Iran
Yalçıner emphasized that the Iran factor in the Gulf region, situated at the center of global energy supply, can no longer be ignored, and assessed the economic and diplomatic dimensions of the process as follows: “It has become clear that the Gulf region, which hosts more than one-fifth of the world’s oil and vast natural gas reserves, can no longer be considered without Iran. Even the largest imperialist powers have now come to understand this reality. During this process, China also became involved and attempted to persuade Iran. In fact, Iran initially adopted a firm stance, saying, ‘I will not accept a ceasefire; I want a peace agreement,’ but it took a step back and accepted the ceasefire. For China, the world’s largest energy importer, the end of this war was of strategic importance because disruptions in energy supply and the contraction of export markets were not in its interest. Ultimately, it was China that persuaded its ally Iran. On the United States side, this situation will likely be addressed through a formula in which companies profit from war reparations and reconstruction activities in the region. It appears that this ceasefire process will continue.”
Israel is nothing without the United States
Mustafa Yalçıner stated that if tensions between the United States and Iran subside, Israel will be unable to sustain the war on its own, emphasizing that the Netanyahu administration is merely trying to “save face.” Yalçıner said: “Israel may continue this conflict for a while longer, but in the end Trump will also bring it to a halt. If the confrontation between Iran and the United States comes to an end, Israel cannot sustain it on its own. Israel has almost no army left; they receive their ammunition from the United States, but American stockpiles have also been significantly depleted. Without logistical and military support, Israel is nothing; in the Middle East, especially against Iran, Israel would be overwhelmed.
After his assertive rhetoric regarding the Iranian regime, Netanyahu now needs an ‘image of victory.’ Since he failed to destroy Iran, he is trying to achieve this partial victory in Lebanon. Once the attack on Iran stops, he will concentrate all his efforts on Lebanon. However, the Lebanese resistance has inflicted serious damage on Israel over the past 15–20 days. If the possibility of a ceasefire emerges, I do not believe that Israel will be able to make significant advances in Lebanon; they are merely trying to save face.”
Yalçıner concluded by assessing Israel’s military capacity and its strategic predicament in the region: “The moment Iran and the United States sit at the negotiating table, Israel will have no room to act independently. Once American support is cut off, it will be impossible for Israel to remain standing in the Middle East. Netanyahu has failed to achieve his goals of eliminating Iran as a threat and overthrowing its regime; therefore, he is now attempting to construct a false victory through Lebanon. However, the losses there and the depletion of ammunition stockpiles have eliminated Israel’s ability to sustain the war. Operations in Lebanon will only be sufficient to save face.”
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