The war continuing between Iran, the United States, and Israel has now lasted for 20 days. The war, which began with Israel and the U.S. attacking Iran, is affecting many countries both economically and materially, while the peoples living in Iran remain determined to resist both the war and the theocratic regime. The public, which demands that the regime change through their own will rather than through outside intervention and is struggling toward that goal, has been forced to move especially toward villages and rural areas in the face of the attacks. In Wan, which lies near the border of this war, people are anxiously watching the ongoing conflict. In the city, where the economic crisis and concerns about migration are also present, people call for a “democratic outcome,” while in Iran the population does not want to leave their lands.
People don’t opt for migration, despite everything
Journalist Ruşen Takva, who has been following this process both at the border gate and through sources in Iran, spoke to our agency about the developments in both Iran and Wan and the views of the public. Takva made evaluations regarding the social, political, and regional impacts of the ongoing war in Iran. Stating that the people of Iran maintain their attachment to their country despite the current conditions, Takva said, “The people of Iran are displaying a dignified stance. Despite all the uncertainties, they feel a strong sense of belonging to their lands. In this sense, they show a different tendency compared to Syrians and Afghans. Therefore, the mass migration that everyone expects has not yet occurred. However, factors such as sectarian or ethnic conflict that could trigger mass migration, disruptions in supply chains, or foreign military intervention from outside have also not yet taken place on the ground. These are important parameters explaining why migration has not yet occurred.”
An ethnic conflict is being provoked
Pointing especially to developments in Urmia, Takva said: “In Urmia, some groups are trying to pit Azerbaijanis and Kurds against each other. However, thanks to the calm attitude of the people living there, it is possible to say that a potential internal conflict has been prevented for now. Our sources report that the people are tense like a drawn bow. A conflict between Azerbaijanis and Kurds there would also have an impact on Turkey. This issue is quite important.”
Stating that heavy bombardments are taking place across Iran, Takva said this is triggering internal migration and added: “Iranians confirm that all major metropolitan areas and cities are under heavy bombardment. For this reason, people are moving away from the cities and migrating internally toward rural areas and villages. For now, they find these places safer. However, because they cannot predict how the war will unfold, they have not yet made a final decision. Most likely, in the coming weeks they will adopt a clearer stance about what they will do. What that decision will be depends on the course of the war. The vast majority of the Iranian population wants this regime to collapse and be replaced by a democratic system, but as the war drags on, this hope is also weakening. This situation makes the processes of organization and leadership more difficult.”
A migration wave will emerge when the final stage is near
Evaluating the dynamics of migration, Takva stated that different groups are acting with different motivations. He emphasized that the people of Iran currently have three main motivations regarding migration. Takva said, “Opponents of the regime do not want to expose themselves by leaving the country while the war is ongoing. Secondly, with the possible death of the religious leader, there is a widespread belief that ‘if the regime collapses, why should we leave?’ Supporters of the regime prefer to remain in the country to ensure the continuation of the system. In other words, every group has a reason to stay. However, it should not be forgotten that if the regime collapses, its supporters will migrate, and if the regime remains standing, the opposition will migrate.
This war will eventually create a wave of migration, but its form will depend on the condition of the regime.”
Migration wave could create serious problems
Emphasizing that Wan is one of the cities most likely to be affected by this process, Takva said, “According to 2025 data, 770,000 Iranian tourists entered Wan. The target this year was one million, but because of the war that target has already been disrupted. On the other hand, the Chamber of Civil Engineers’ Wan Branch announced that the city’s critical migration threshold is 50,000 people. A migration wave of 50,000 people arriving in Wan overnight could put the city’s infrastructure and superstructure at risk of collapse.”
People don’t want war to continue
Drawing attention to the strong ties between Wan and Iran, Takva said, “People in Wan have had cultural and social interaction with the people of Iran for many years. A large part of the local tradespeople either speak or understand Persian. For this reason, bombs falling on the other side of the border also affect the people of Wan emotionally. Everyone on the street wants this war to end in favor of the people of Iran—that is, with a transition to a democratic order.”