As one of the most severe drought cycles to hit Iran continues, communities living in the country’s west and northwest, especially in Eastern Kurdistan (Rojhilat), are facing a deep ecological crisis that is making life increasingly difficult. Experts and international bodies note that by 2025 the drought is no longer merely a climatic phenomenon; years of poor water management, state policies and long-term environmental neglect have turned it into a structural collapse.
Rainfall drops below 2 mm per month
Rainfall in the water basins of Eastern Kurdistan has fallen by 70 to 90 percent compared with long-term averages. According to reports by the Iran Water Authority, monthly precipitation in many areas has dropped below 2 millimetres, far behind the national average of 56 millimetres. This decline has brought agricultural production to the brink of collapse, particularly in the Sine, Seqiz, Bokan and Hewraman belt. As riverbeds have dried up, most irrigation canals have become unusable; and in hundreds of villages, the rapid increase in groundwater extraction has pushed aquifer levels below critical thresholds.
The most striking outcome of the drought in Eastern Kurdistan is the collapse of the Lake Urmia basin. Once the second-largest salt lake in the Middle East, Lake Urmia is now almost entirely dried up as of 2025, according to recent NASA satellite imagery. Scientific measurements around the lake show that water levels have fallen 95 percent over the past fifty years, turning most of the lakebed into a salt desert.
One of the main reasons for this dramatic decline is the large number of dams and water-management projects built on the rivers and streams that feed the lake. Scientific sources indicate that nearly fifty major dams have been constructed across the basin over the past three decades. Some reports put the number “between 48 and 70,” but regardless of the exact figure, it is clear that damming and water diversion have drastically reduced the inflow feeding the lake.
Thirteen permanent rivers in the basin serve as Lake Urmia’s main water sources. The Zarrineh River alone provides around 42 percent of the lake’s inflow; the second-largest contributor, the Simineh River, supplies roughly 13 percent. Both rivers rise in the Zagros Mountains, the Zarrineh from the highlands in the basin’s southeast, and the Simineh flowing from the region of Northern Kurdistan (Bakur).
A significant portion of the water is lost to evaporation and groundwater
The construction of dams and large-scale water diversions not only interrupt the natural flow feeding the lake but also dramatically reduce the total volume of water reaching the basin. Scientific studies show that, alongside the decline in water directed toward the lake, the increased use of water for agricultural irrigation and the redirection of surface flows to other areas before they reach the lake have had a profound impact.
In addition, Lake Urmia receives some water directly from rainfall and small streams. However, because the lake has no natural outlet, functioning as a closed basin, it relies entirely on precipitation and river inflows. Each year, vast amounts of water are lost through evaporation or through agricultural and groundwater extraction.
In this context, one dimension of the pressure faced by communities in Eastern Kurdistan is this: the concentration of dams, irrigation systems and water extraction at the sources of rivers such as the Zarrineh and Simineh, both critical feeders of Lake Urmia, has become a major threat not only to the lake itself but also to the region’s local water resources.
Threat of salt storms
The drying of the lake has exposed local communities to a new threat: salt storms. Fine layers of salt carried by the wind settle over surrounding settlements, covering farmland; respiratory illnesses are on the rise, and risks to child health are increasing. Soil fertility in villages around the lake has dropped dramatically and polluted well water has become undrinkable. United Nations environmental reports warn that the area around Lake Urmia may fall below the “livability threshold” in the coming years.
The social impact of drought in Eastern Kurdistan is worsening year by year. Analyses by the Iran Water Authority show that around 92 percent of Iran’s total water consumption takes place in the agricultural sector, and the collapse of agricultural production has devastated rural regions. This crisis is felt even more sharply in Eastern Kurdistan, where farmers bear the dual burden of declining rainfall and deep political and regional inequalities in water distribution. With agricultural income plummeting, livestock herds are being reduced in hundreds of villages, farm equipment is being sold off, and agricultural activity is being abandoned. As local residents describe it, “just as the soil loses its water, the village loses its youth.” Migration toward major cities is accelerating, especially among those aged 18 to 35.
Migration hotspots include areas such as Sine, Seqiz, Merîwan and Bokan. Villagers report that drinking water delivered by tanker sometimes fails to arrive for weeks, while most wells have nearly dried up. Some villages are completely abandoned during the summer months, then partially reoccupied with winter and spring rains. But this cycle is rapidly eroding the region’s social fabric. Drought is no longer merely an economic problem; it has become a crisis threatening the cohesion of villages, the structure of families and the continuity of cultural life.
Inequality in water distribution
Another factor deepening the crisis is the structural inequality in the distribution of water. Local actors in Eastern Kurdistan say most of the available water is channelled to city centres, state-supported agricultural enterprises and industrial facilities, while Kurdish villages are systematically placed at the very end of water-distribution schedules. Independent research examining Iran’s water-management system shows that communities in Eastern Kurdistan have virtually no say in central planning processes and that regional development projects are drafted without taking local ecosystems or community needs into account.
International institutions confirm this picture. Joint assessments by the World Bank and the United Nations Environment Programme report that groundwater levels in northwest Iran are falling at rates exceeding one metre per year. Scientific studies note that soil salinisation and desertification in the Lake Urmia basin, which includes Eastern Kurdistan, have surpassed 40 percent in some areas. A long-term public health study based on respiratory measurements shows that salt storms triggered by the drying of Lake Urmia have caused a sharp rise in respiratory illnesses in the region, with asthma and allergic conditions increasing particularly among children.
Under these conditions, the crisis unfolding in Eastern Kurdistan is understood not only as an environmental disaster but as a clear process of social collapse. Economic impoverishment, the emptying of villages, the rapid outmigration of young people and political exclusion from access to water have together created what experts describe as “a massive crisis in which ecological fragility and social erosion are intertwined.” Specialists warn that unless urgent intervention is taken, Eastern Kurdistan may face mass displacement, agricultural collapse and irreversible environmental destruction within the next 10 to 15 years.
Proposed solutions
Environmental activists in Eastern Kurdistan have for years been calling for the fair distribution of water and for local communities to have a say in regional water management. Independent studies examining Iran’s water policies confirm these demands. The Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI), for example, notes in its reports analysing the structural causes of Iran’s water crisis that water distribution in minority regions is shaped by political and economic priorities, and that Kurdish areas are systematically excluded from access to resources. For this reason, activists’ demands are not only environmental but also rooted in basic principles of equality and justice.
A shift toward modern irrigation techniques is among the most debated issues. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has repeatedly emphasised the inefficiency of irrigation methods used in Iran, reporting that existing systems increase annual water loss in lake and river basins by up to 30 percent. Farmers in Eastern Kurdistan say that the traditional irrigation methods they have relied on for centuries have become unsustainable, while experts note that the introduction of drip and pressurised irrigation could cut regional water consumption by half. Yet according to FAO’s “Iran Agricultural Water Management Assessment” report, the central government has not provided the budget necessary for this transition, leaving most local projects stalled at the planning stage.
Restricting groundwater extraction is another critical demand in the region. Data from the Iran Department of Environment for 2024 shows that groundwater levels in the West Azerbaijan and Eastern Kurdistan basins are falling by an average of one metre per year. The World Bank’s “Iran Water Crisis Profile,” published in the same year, warns that without urgent intervention more than 600 villages in the region could lose all access to drinking water by 2030. Despite this, the government has effectively allowed deeper well drilling for agricultural and industrial use to continue unchecked, further accelerating water depletion.
Calls to restore dried riverbeds have also yielded no results. The flow of rivers such as the Zarrineh, Simineh, Sirwan and Gadar, all of which feed the lake and surrounding basins, has dropped by more than 50 percent in the past twenty years. The Iranian Hydrology Research Centre stresses that this decline cannot be explained by climate factors alone; much of it stems from dam construction and agricultural water diversion.
The most critical issue remains the rehabilitation of the Lake Urmia basin. The Iranian government announced a major project in 2016 under the name “Lake Urmia Restoration Programme,” but audit reports show that as of 2023 only 35 percent of the allocated budget had been used and around 70 percent of the planned projects remained on paper. The United Nations Environment Programme, in its 2024 assessment, stated that the basin no longer has the capacity to recover naturally under current conditions and called for urgent international intervention.
Eastern Kurdistan may lose its livability
Environmental organisations in the region describe the situation as “the beginning of irreversible destruction,” a warning echoed across international scientific circles. A study published by the University of Oxford states that the complete collapse of Lake Urmia will not only destroy the lake’s ecosystem but will also irreversibly transform Eastern Kurdistan’s agricultural pattern, groundwater cycle and long-term capacity for sustaining life. The same study notes that salt storms forming around the lake threaten agriculture, public health and settlements within a 100-kilometre radius, creating “an impact that will trigger climate-driven forced migration.”
Local communities voice a clear and determined call: equitable distribution of water, meaningful local participation in water-management decisions, fully funded rehabilitation projects for the Urmia basin, and the establishment of environmental justice. Without these steps, a large part of Eastern Kurdistan is expected to rapidly lose its livability in the coming years, a warning now articulated loudly at both scientific and societal levels.