Iraq has repeatedly faced government formation crises after parliamentary elections. Under the power-sharing system established since 2003, the president goes to the Kurds, the prime minister to the Shiites, and the speaker of parliament to Sunni Arabs. But rivalry within Shiite blocs and outside influences continue to directly shape the selection of a prime minister. Prolonged negotiations, alliance-building and regional and international power balances often dominate the agenda for months. This has once again been the case following the parliamentary elections held on November 11, 2025. Nearly five and a half months later, the country has still been unable to name a prime minister or form a government.
Iraq’s parliament consists of a 329-seat Council of Representatives, with 165 seats required for a governing majority. As Shiite Arabs make up around 60 percent of the population, they generally form the largest bloc. But internal divisions have made agreeing on a prime minister candidate difficult. In the November 11 elections, Shiite parties won 187 seats, Sunnis 77, Kurds 56 and parties representing quota seats for minorities 9.
By party, the Reconstruction and Development Coalition led by incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani came first, followed by the Sunni-majority Taqaddum Party led by former Parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi, while former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law Coalition came third. Voter turnout stood at 56 percent, up from 41 percent in the 2021 election. Kurdish parties maintained their strength. The elections were held amid a boycott by the Sadrist Movement, which contributed to the fragmentation of the Shiite vote.
Can Maliki return to power?
Following the elections, the process of selecting a prime minister entered a new phase. In January, the Shiite Coordination Framework nominated Nouri al-Maliki as its candidate for prime minister as the largest bloc in parliament. The move reverberated not only in Baghdad but also in Washington. Donald Trump threatened to cut U.S. support for Iraq if Maliki returned to power.
Trump said: “While al-Maliki was in power, Iraq was driven into poverty and complete chaos. This must not be allowed to happen again. Because of his reckless policies and ideologies, if he is chosen, the United States will no longer assist Iraq, and without us there Iraq will have no chance for success, prosperity or freedom. Make Iraq great again.” Maliki, in turn, described Trump’s remarks as “a violation of Iraq’s sovereignty and an external threat.”
Prime minister from 2006 to 2014, Maliki is widely seen as close to Iran. His years in office saw conflict with Sunnis and Kurds and tensions in relations with the United States. In 2014, he was forced to step down after ISIS seized large parts of Iraq. Yet Maliki remains an influential figure in Iraqi politics and continues to maintain strong ties with groups close to Iran.
Time is running out
The Coordination Framework named Maliki as its candidate, but the process soon stalled. Although Maliki’s camp has strong backing, figures close to Sudani, along with Asaib Ahl al-Haq and the camp aligned with Ammar al-Hakim, have opposed his candidacy. Since January, the Coordination Framework has met numerous times but failed to agree on a common nominee. Meetings have repeatedly been postponed. One side favors Maliki or Accountability and Justice Commission head Basim al-Badri, while another supports Ihsan al-Awadi, chief of staff to Sudani. The latest meeting, initially expected on April 22, was postponed to April 24. Shiite leaders were expected to meet Wednesday evening in Baghdad at the home of Humam Hammoudi, head of the Supreme Islamic Council.
With Nizar Amedi elected president, the deadline to name a prime ministerial nominee is tightening. Under Iraq’s constitution, Shiite parties forming the largest bloc in parliament had 15 days from April 11 to choose a candidate and submit the nomination to the president. Under Article 76 of the constitution, the nominee then has 30 days to form a government and win a parliamentary vote of confidence.
That makes Saturday, April 25, the final day of the constitutional deadline. For that reason, the postponed meeting expected Friday may be the Coordination Framework’s last chance to reach an internal compromise without falling into a constitutional breach.
Shiite blocs and militias
Iraq’s Shiite political structure is largely shaped around the Coordination Framework. The umbrella includes Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces as well as traditional political parties. Nouri al-Maliki, leader of the State of Law Coalition; Qais al-Khazali, leader of Asaib Ahl al-Haq; Hadi al-Amiri, leader of the Badr Organization; Ammar al-Hakim, leader of Hikma National State Forces; and Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, leader of the Reconstruction and Development Coalition, stand out as leading figures within the Shiite blocs. Concentrated in oil-rich Basra and politically and economically powerful in Baghdad, Shiite forces also wield significant military influence through militia structures.
Shiite armed groups brought together under the Popular Mobilization Forces, formed in 2014 against ISIS, now function both as official state forces and as autonomous political-military actors. Their close overlap with parties inside the Coordination Framework directly shapes debates over the premiership and complicates sectarian power-sharing. In the 2025 elections, for example, the Badr Organization won around 18 seats, while Asaib Ahl al-Haq secured 27.
Shiite militias also maintain influence over security and economic control in Basra, Najaf, Karbala and Baghdad. They hold sway over oil fields, border crossings and state contracts. In parliament, they exercise veto power in ministerial distribution and budget bargaining through their seats. These balances have directly shaped the crisis over naming a prime minister and forming a government since January.
A vicious cycle
Although the current crisis has roots stretching back to 2003, the elections of 2018, 2021 and 2022 were especially turbulent. In the 2018 elections, the Reform Alliance led by Muqtada al-Sadr won the most seats, but no consensus emerged. Adel Abdul Mahdi was chosen as an independent prime minister. The following October, protests over unemployment, corruption and failing public services left more than 400 people dead. Abdul Mahdi resigned following a call by Iraq’s Shiite religious leader Ali al-Sistani. The government formation process lasted nearly a year and sectarian tensions deepened.
In the October 2021 early elections, the Sadrist Movement emerged as the largest bloc with 73 seats. Sadr sought to form a majority government but failed to reach agreement with the Shiite Coordination Framework and other blocs. Sadr’s supporters withdrew from parliament in 2022. Following that, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani was elected prime minister in October 2022 with the backing of the Coordination Framework. Although Sudani took office promising reforms, he was unable to halt rivalry among Shiite blocs or curb the influence of militias.
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