As the attacks by the United States and Israel against Iran continued, the two-week ceasefire announced by Trump on April 8, on the condition that the Strait of Hormuz be opened to maritime traffic, became controversial from its first days due to violations on the ground. While the ceasefire is considered a temporary pause, it remains uncertain whether it will turn into a lasting solution. Across the Middle East, especially in the Gulf, there is close attention to how tensions will evolve.
Journalist Kadir Cesur, who closely follows developments in the region, shared his assessment of the process with ANF.
“The ceasefire is not a compromise, but a tactical pause”
Cesur stated that he does not believe the ceasefire will last long and drew attention to the situation on the ground: “I am among those who think this ceasefire will not last long. While Iran and Hezbollah say they are respecting the ceasefire, they claim that Israel continues its violations. Indeed, on April 9 Hezbollah launched a rocket attack on the settlement of Manara in response to Israel’s violations. This already clearly shows how fragile the situation on the ground is.
While violations continue in the field, there is also no concrete progress at the negotiating table. In a situation where diplomatic channels are blocked, it is unrealistic to expect a ceasefire to become permanent. What this picture tells us is this: it is not a will for peace but a short break in which the parties reposition themselves. The sides do not want to end the conflict; on the contrary, everyone is trying to strengthen their own position. For this reason there is a serious disconnect between the language of the ceasefire and the reality on the ground.”
“A long period of uncertainty awaits us”
Cesur emphasized that the possibility of the process evolving into lasting peace is weak, pointing out that regional dynamics indicate a multilayered crisis: “To be honest, rather than a lasting peace, a scenario of ‘managed tension’ appears more likely. The fact that Israel has entered an election year in 2026 forces Benjamin Netanyahu to follow a harder line. The need to appear strong in domestic politics directly influences military reflexes. On the other side, Iran maintaining its nuclear capacity deepens this uncertainty. Iran has clearly stated that it will not sit down for any peace negotiations with the United States unless a ceasefire is achieved in Lebanon. This creates a complex equation in which every front depends on another.
Looking from Van, the picture is very clear: this process is not a short-term crisis. A long period of uncertainty awaits us. There is neither a full-scale war nor a real peace; in between there is a line that constantly produces tension.”
“Border trade has collapsed”
Cesur also drew attention to the economic impacts of the conflict in the region, stating that the Turkish border city of Van has been directly affected. Recounting his conversation with Van Chamber of Commerce and Industry President Necdet Takva, Cesur said: “The Iranian border gates are the economic lifeline of this region. When the gates close or uncertainty arises in trade, the effects are felt immediately. For 2026, the expected number of Iranian tourists visiting Van was around 1 million. Last year the number reached 777,000. Each Iranian tourist spends an average of about 500 dollars. That means an economic volume of roughly 500 million dollars.
However, the current war environment has almost eliminated this expectation. There are more than a thousand companies trading between Van and Iran, and these companies are now struggling to do business. Tourism operators, hotels, and shopkeepers who invested in the Newroz period have suffered major losses. Many businesses are on the brink of bankruptcy. Iranian tourists are one of the biggest sources of income for Van’s economy. When that income disappears, the city directly enters an economic deadlock.”
“People are not relaxing, they are just holding their breath”
Kadir Cesur also spoke about the social reflections of the developments on the ground, describing the mood of the local population: “In Van there is a society that has long lived side by side with Iranians. For that reason, every development on the other side of the border is felt directly here. People’s memories are very strong; they do not forget similar processes experienced in the past. Today, if you tell someone on the street that ‘a ceasefire has been declared,’ the first reaction is usually ‘that’s good.’ But immediately after that comes the sentence ‘this is not over yet.’ This actually summarizes the mood of society very well.
Especially for families who have relatives across the border, the ceasefire means a short moment to breathe. But no one believes it is permanent. The ceasefire that took place in June 2025 had been evaluated in a similar way. The most commonly used phrase here is: ‘the calm before the storm.’ People are not experiencing relief; they are simply waiting, more precisely, holding their breath while watching developments.”
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