Despite initial steps toward implementing the agreement between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the transitional government in Damascus, the contours of a new transitional phase are emerging in Syria. The developments make it clear that key issues along the Rojava–Damascus axis remain unresolved, and that the political, military, and social fault lines of the past 14 years are once again coming to the forefront.
64 years of an unresolved identity question
In several cities across Syria, negotiations over issues of citizenship and integration are currently intensifying. A concept that has historically had little grounding is now moving to the center: equal citizenship. The Kurdish question in Syria is shaped by a long history of political exclusion. Border demarcations after 1916, particularly in the context of the Sykes-Picot Agreement, as well as the policies of successive regimes, have had a lasting impact on developments. Measures such as the so-called Arab Belt aimed to demographically alter Kurdish regions.
Since the 1970s, the Baath regime systematically continued this policy. Kurdish identity was suppressed, and fundamental rights were denied. This included, among other things, the prohibition of Kurdish education and the exclusion of tens of thousands of people from the civil registry. Many of them were registered as “Maktumin” – without official legal status.
The shifts brought about by the Arab Spring in 2011 did little to change this. Although the regime lost control, constitutional recognition of Kurdish rights did not materialize. The current talks based on the January 29 agreement therefore mark a potential turning point: for the first time in decades, the issue of identity and citizenship rights is once again concretely under discussion.
Prisoners and unresolved fates
At the same time, the situation surrounding prisoners and the disappeared remains unclear. While around 800 hostages have been released so far, the fate of many others remains unknown. In particular, since the offensive by the Syrian transitional government against the autonomous administration areas in January, there has been no trace of numerous fighters and civilians.
Prisons in Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa, and Aleppo are considered key locations where an unknown number of people may still be held. For weeks, relatives in various cities have been demanding clarification about the fate of their family members and are urging the transitional government in Damascus to disclose information.
The issue of prisoner exchange and clarification is part of a broader negotiation package between the SDF and Damascus. This also includes topics such as the territorial unity of Syria, the return of refugees from Europe and other regions, and the repatriation of internally displaced persons. These points are considered crucial for a possible normalization in the country.
Return movements and new realities
Alongside the political talks, return movements are also gaining momentum. Families from Afrin have begun returning to their region of origin. Most recently, around 800 families set out from Qamishlo. For many returnees, this is a symbolic moment. “After eight years, we are returning to our homeland,” say those returning. The region had been profoundly transformed since the Turkish state’s war of aggression and jihadist militias in 2018 and the subsequent occupation.
In addition to returns to Afrin, the agreements also include infrastructural measures. These include the clearance of mined areas, the restoration of transport routes, and the creation of security conditions for the civilian population. In this context, the road between Til Temir (Tel Tamer) and Serêkaniyê (Ras al-Ain) has been reopened for the first time in over six years.
Despite ongoing uncertainty, it is expected that further regions, including Serêkaniyê, which has been heavily affected by looting, could gradually be opened to returnees.
Agreement without a clear timeline
Although the January 29 agreement provides a political framework, key questions regarding its implementation remain unresolved. SDF General Commander Mazloum Abdi had previously stated that the institutions of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria would remain in place while state structures would be integrated. Joint committees are already working in areas such as communication, agriculture, energy, and health. However, it remains unclear how central political and administrative issues will be resolved. This includes, for example, the election of mayors or the appointment of military and political officials. In addition, the transitional government in Damascus has not yet presented a binding timeline for implementing the agreement. Despite concrete steps on the ground, a clear political framework is still lacking.
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