As the war between the US–Israel bloc and Iran continues, tensions are also rising again along the Iraq–Syria border. The withdrawal of the Iraqi army from key border areas, particularly Abu Kamal and Al-Qaim, is being interpreted as a sign of preparations for a new conflict in the region. Recent US airstrikes targeting the Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces, PMF) are seen as an attempt to weaken Iran’s influence along the borderline. It is also said that due to the proximity of Abu Kamal and Al-Qaim, a possible conflict between the PMF and HTS could shift the balance on both sides of the border.
Following the January 29 agreement between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Damascus, a search for a new balance on the ground is drawing attention. Although security-focused talks have temporarily softened the atmosphere in Syria, there are indications that this could evolve into a new conflict environment in Iraq. It is also stated that the dynamics that could push the SDF and Damascus back into conflict remain strong. Analysts emphasize that the main determining factor in the region is the expanding impact of Iran–Israel tensions. According to them, the door to a new Shiite–Sunni sectarian conflict has been opened.
HTS and the Lebanon scenario
Sources on the ground report that new scenarios aimed at escalating tensions along the Syria–Lebanon line are being discussed. According to these sources, there are plans to position HTS-affiliated armed groups against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
While prioritizing the security of Kurdish regions, the SDF seeks to demonstrate the viability of its agreement with Damascus on the ground. The return of Afrin residents and the appointment of SDF General Command member Sipan Hemo as Deputy Minister of Defense are interpreted as signs of goodwill, but the situation on the ground remains highly complex. Sources indicate that the parties have agreed on lists regarding prisoner exchanges and that mutual releases are expected before Newroz on March 21.
Sanadid Forces offered to participate in an operation against the PMF
As activity in the region continues, information suggests that the Sanadid Forces were offered to participate in an operation against the PMF; however, they did not respond positively. The offer is said to aim at reshaping control along the borderline. In a message conveyed to HTS leader al-Jolani (Ahmed al-Sharaa) and his team, it was reportedly stated: “We do not have the strength; we cannot fight the PMF.” Despite this, preparations for a possible conflict are reportedly being felt along the Abu Kamal, Deir ez-Zor, Til Kocher, Al-Qaim, and Qamishlo line.
New power struggles
Meanwhile, the withdrawal of the Iraqi army from the border and US strikes against the PMF are creating the conditions for a new power struggle in the region. It is also reported that HTS and Jolani’s team have recently been holding meetings in various Syrian cities.
Jolani’s search for government and uncertainty
Jolani’s attempt to form a government remains highly uncertain. The possibility of purges within his team indicates that this process is being closely monitored by both regional and international actors.
In addition to these developments, ISIS is reportedly calling for renewed organization in Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor, Shuhail, and Diban. In particular, open cells in Raqqa are said to be presenting the population with two options: join ISIS or leave the area.
Three critical factors for the future
Sources on the ground highlight three key factors that will determine Syria’s future:
* The full implementation of the SDF–Damascus agreement. The effective and sustainable implementation of the January 29 agreement could strengthen the prospects for a political solution in Syria.
* The scenario of using HTS against Hezbollah in Lebanon and a potential HTS–PMF conflict along the Iraq–Syria line indicate that a regional war may be imminent.
* ISIS’ attempt to reorganize in Iraq and Syria raises serious concerns that it may be reintroduced as a mass-violence force on the ground.
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