Developments over the past year in North and East Syria point to a critical threshold that goes beyond military balances on the ground and determines the place of the Kurdish question in Syria’s reconstruction process. The escalating attacks throughout 2025, the ceasefire and integration agreement declared on 29 January 2026, and the siege conditions that still persist today clearly show that the debate over Rojava’s status has not yet been resolved.
For decades, the Kurdish people’s resistance in North and East Syria has become a stronghold against attacks by imperialist powers and regional actors. Armed groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which repeatedly violated the 10 March and 1 April agreements signed in 2025 and carried out attacks against the Kurdish people, launched a war against Rojava with the direct support of the occupying Turkish state. However, the resistance of the Kurdish people, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and their allies worldwide repelled these attacks and brought about the 29 January 2026 agreement.
The year 2025 was marked by rising tensions and violations in Rojava. Although the 10 March Memorandum envisaged integration, it was repeatedly breached by HTS and Turkish-backed armed groups. By January 2026, clashes had intensified, and meetings in Damascus between SDF Commander Mazlum Abdi and Ilham Ahmed had yielded no results. During HTS’s Paris meetings held under U.S. and Israeli supervision, attacks began on 6 January against the Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyah neighborhoods of Aleppo; this was followed on 16 January by strikes targeting Deir Hafer, Tabqa, Raqqa, and Deir ez-Zor.
At the 19 January meeting in Damascus, the demand to “evacuate Hesekê and Kobanê and lay down arms” was rejected by the SDF. As attacks reached Kobanê, Hesekê, and Qamishlo, the Rojava Autonomous Administration declared mobilization. Popular resistance triggered international reactions.
On 27 January, Mazloum Abdi and Ilham Ahmed went to Damascus; the agreement was signed on 29 January and announced on 30 January by the SDF Press Center and the Syrian Ministry of Information. The timeline for implementing the comprehensive ceasefire and integration agreement announced on January 30 began.
At a public gathering, DEM Party Co-Chair Tuncer Bakırhan drew attention to Abdullah Öcalan’s involvement in the process, stating: “From the very first day, Mr. Öcalan told the SDF, ‘Start the democratic process with Damascus.’ He told Ankara, ‘Do not take part in a plan that eliminates the Kurds.’ And he told us, ‘Stand by Rojava.’ Mr. Öcalan’s stance ended the attack there and made the 30 January agreement possible.”
Öcalan had halted the attacks and made the agreement possible.
The agreement, announced on 30 January by the SDF Press Center and the Syrian Ministry of Information, includes critical provisions such as the withdrawal of military forces to designated areas, prisoner exchanges, the return of displaced persons, and constitutional guarantees for Kurdish rights. Although some progress has been recorded in the first month, implementation has been uneven.
The agreement was presented as a comprehensive ceasefire and integration text signed between the SDF and the Syrian Interim Government. However, despite a month having passed, its implementation on the ground remains controversial. While certain steps have been taken, critical issues such as the siege of Kobanê continue, and the Kurdish people’s rights have not yet been constitutionally guaranteed.
On 2–3 February, convoys of General Security Forces affiliated with the Daraa Governorate arrived in Hesekê and Qamishlo; a total of 214 personnel were deployed. Ten of them began working as a technical team with Rojava’s Internal Security Forces.
On 4 February, the appointment of Nureddin Isa Ahmed (Abu Omer Khanika) to the Hesekê Governorship marked a step toward administrative integration.
In the Jazira region, military forces withdrew from city centers and were redeployed to brigades; progress was made at strategic points such as airports and oil fields.
Most recently, two days ago, joint checkpoints were established in the town of Çelebiyê in Kobanê. It is planned that Kobanê’s Internal Security Forces will be linked to the Aleppo General Security Forces and that a brigade will be integrated into the Aleppo Division. Twelve joint points in the Şêxler subdistrict and new checkpoints in Çelebiyê were initial steps in this direction.
The return of displaced persons is hopeful but insufficient. Since 2018, more than 300,000 people from Afrin have been victims of property seizures and forced displacement. On 16 February, the Afrin Union announced that more than 400 families would return to Jindires, Mabata, and Shiye. On 23 February, Asayish commanders went to Afrin and Aleppo to establish joint committees; the first convoy included more than 400 families. Although this development is a humanitarian gain, property restitution and security guarantees remain unclear.
However, overshadowing these steps, the siege of Kobanê, ongoing since 20 January, stands out as the most fragile aspect of the agreement. The siege continues in contradiction to the spirit of the agreement, deepening the lack of trust on the ground. This indicates that the influence of HTS and Turkey persists and that Damascus is resisting full integration. The provision regarding constitutional guarantees for Kurdish rights remains on paper, threatening the long-term sustainability of the agreement.
Kobanê under siege
The siege of Kobanê has led to a humanitarian crisis affecting more than 600,000 civilians. The closure of the city’s entrances and exits prevents the delivery of food, medicine, and aid supplies. Around 200,000 people are living in temporary shelters at 70 different locations, including families displaced from Afrin. The impossibility of returning to villages is worsening living conditions by the day.
The 29 January Agreement marked a turning point for Rojava: with the repelling of attacks, the door to integration was opened. However, the imbalances observed in the first month show that a genuine climate of trust remains distant.
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