Months of talks between the Damascus administration and Rojava may appear to be progressing at the negotiating table, but developments on the ground point in the opposite direction. The region’s multi-layered balance of power has grown even more complex, particularly due to Turkey’s interventions and the debates over a potential withdrawal by the United States. Sources on the ground say that the process being pursued under the heading of “integration” has effectively stalled.
Turkey’s pressure is blocking the process
The main deadlock on the Rojava–Damascus line is said to stem from Turkey’s military and intelligence pressure.
Ziad El-Ayesh, who was tasked with monitoring the implementation of the agreement signed on 29 January between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian Transitional Government, is reported to be a Salafist soldier trained by Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT) and to have played a leading role in organizing cell structures. It is also reported that the Central Special Security Directorate in Damascus operates de facto under El-Ayesh’s authority, and that particular attention is paid to selecting personnel primarily from Salafist cadres.
Local sources say that Ankara has been continuously issuing directives to Damascus through both political and military channels, and that the critical provisions of the agreement have therefore not been implemented.
Against this backdrop, members of the SDF command held a series of meetings with the Syrian Ministry of Defense in Damascus on Sunday, 22 February. The establishment of joint brigades and the position of Deputy Minister of Defense were discussed, but it remains unclear who will be appointed to the post.
Kobanê blockade
The blockade of Kobanê, which has been ongoing for a month, has become the most critical breaking point between the parties. Structures known for looting, plunder, ransom-taking and abductions, affiliated with the Turkish state, are playing an active role in the siege.
Sources on the ground say that Damascus forces are effectively maintaining the blockade and acting in parallel with the plans of the Turkish state. This has strengthened interpretations that Turkish state is playing a decisive role behind the scenes in the process being carried out under the heading of “integration.”
ISIS is exploiting the vacuum
As the political deadlock deepens, ISIS is seen to be reorganizing, particularly along the Deir ez-Zor (Dêrazor) line. The group has carried out a series of attacks in recent days.
Today, a military post belonging to Damascus forces was targeted in Al-Basir. In Deyban, a government building was attacked, and fire was opened on groups linked to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in the area. Local security sources said the organization “quickly infiltrates every area where a vacuum emerges.”
United States withdrawal debates
Debates over a potential United States withdrawal from Syria appear set to reshape all balances on the ground. Although the timeline mentioned for 2 March has not been formalized, local sources say that Washington is seriously considering the option of a “full withdrawal.”
Today, United States forces began withdrawing from the Qasrak base in the countryside of Hasakah (Hesekê). Sources in the area say that “the United States is largely leaving Syria, leaving behind only a single military unit.”
This possibility is creating a major vacuum on both the political and military fronts, while the risk of a new wave of conflict is growing amid concerns over the resurgence of ISIS and more aggressive moves by regional actors.
Preparations for return to Afrin as Kobanê remains under siege
The preparations for the return of hundreds of Afrin (Efrîn) families who were displaced after the occupation of Afrin in 2018 have been completed. A delegation from the Rojava Internal Security Forces conducted inspections in Afrin. In the first stage, the return of 400 families to Afrin is planned, whose demographic structure has been radically altered since 2018.
However, the contradiction on the ground is striking:
On the one hand, preparations are under way for the return of Afrin families, while on the other, Kobanê has been under siege for a month.
This is also the question most frequently voiced by residents in Rojava: “If a return to Afrin is possible, why is Kobanê still under siege?”
This contradiction is further deepening doubts that the agreement is being implemented on the ground.
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