Academic Seda Altuğ said that the 30 January Agreement, signed after the attacks targeting Northern and Eastern Syria, functions less as a document of guarantees than as a mechanism to prevent the deepening and spread of a potential Kurdish–Arab conflict. She stressed that the ceasefire dimension of the agreement is of critical importance for the safety of civilians living in Rojava.
Altuğ said the ceasefire also serves, at a regional level, as a barrier against potential clashes to protect civilian populations, emphasizing the agreement’s particular significance for people living in Rojava. She noted that whether the agreement inspires confidence will be determined by the steps taken in practice, adding that how the military issue is resolved will be decisive in shaping that confidence.
The issue in Syria will be addressed within the framework of the agreement
Seda Altuğ said that both the previous and the current peace processes in Turkey have been shaped in relation to developments in Rojava, recalling that the process implemented between 2012 and 2015 was brought to an end due to developments in Rojava.
Altuğ said the agreement marks the beginning of a new phase in Rojava and added: “The Kurdish issue in Syria will now be addressed primarily as an internal Syrian matter, within the framework offered by the 30 January Agreement. As for how this will affect developments here, the practice of defining Turkey’s trajectory solely in response to constant shifts on the Syrian ground is, to some extent, approaching its end. Because even if the situation on the Syrian ground changes, the period following the 30 January Agreement has at the very least, brought a certain degree of stability and continuity. This situation has been accepted not only by Turkey but also by other states and international actors. Even if we cannot say that the Rojava issue has been fully resolved as far as Turkey is concerned, it is possible to state that it has entered a new phase, a new stage.”
A return to the pre-2011 situation in Rojava is no longer possible
Seda Altuğ drew attention to the spirit of national unity that emerged among the Kurdish people during the attacks, offering the following assessment: “This is an emotional unity that stands above political parties and beyond polarization. With regard to Rojava, I believe a return to the pre-2011 situation is no longer possible. Very heavy prices have been paid, and very great sacrifices have been made. Even if the point reached after a long and painful war marked by profound suffering does not correspond to what was hoped for, expected, or imagined, I do not think Syria will return to pre-2011 conditions. This can be assessed both in terms of the issue of Kurdish citizenship and the recognition of Kurds.”
How the agreement proceeds will closely affect the region
Seda Altuğ said that the Turkish government’s acceptance of the 30 January Agreement means there is no immediate risk of conflict in the region in the short term, though anything could unfold in the longer term. Altuğ said: “The demands of the people are not yet matters that have been secured through constitutional or legal guarantees. The issue of Kurds governing themselves as a collective will may be implicitly present in the framework text, but it must be translated into practice. Therefore, how the agreement proceeds will closely affect developments in other regions where Kurds live. From the perspective of Syria, it is possible to argue that a new phase has begun. In the long term, however, the way the agreement evolves, together with developments in Iran and Iraq, could alter the overall equation.”
The process is moving on a more technical and bureaucratic track
Seda Altuğ also assessed how developments in Rojava are affecting the peace process in Turkey. Altuğ also said: “At present, the process is unfolding on a more technical and bureaucratic plane among political elites. A reversal remains possible if the parties conclude that withdrawing from the process serves their interests better than continuing it. Every process carries the possibility of reversal. However, if the parties demonstrate the will to continue rather than retreat, the process will move forward. Political steps taken, statements made, and remarks by Bahçeli on their own do not offer any guarantee. What can be observed at this stage is an intention. At the same time, developments at the parliamentary level have been ongoing for nearly a year, along with statements and similar processes. Whether these will be transformed into legal guarantees, and whether the process will accelerate, advance, or stall once written and concrete steps are taken, will become clearer in the days ahead.”
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