Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, formerly al-Nusra Front) launched its “Operation to Prevent Attacks” on 27 November. HTS initiated this operation by taking advantage of regional and international circumstances that have shifted the balance of power, including Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, Tel Aviv’s efforts to end Iranian influence, and attempts to weaken Iran’s allies, foremost among them the Baath regime.
Rapid attacks and the fall of the regime
Israel, targeting Iran’s influence in Syria and Lebanon, carried out heavy strikes on Hezbollah and Iranian militia bases. As a result, the Syrian regime’s military infrastructure weakened, and its forces withdrew from front lines in areas controlled by HTS. This withdrawal opened the way for HTS to launch a full-scale offensive.
The operation began in the western countryside of Aleppo. Within forty-eight hours, the Baath regime had lost most of the areas west and south of Aleppo, as well as a large portion of eastern Idlib’s countryside.
By early December 2024, HTS assault units had taken full control of Aleppo, and regime forces had retreated toward Hama province.
On 5 December 2024, the city of Hama also fell under HTS control, leaving Baath regime forces confined to the rural areas of Damascus, Homs, Daraa and Quneitra.
Southern groups intervened and the capital came under pressure
In southern Syria, local groups in Daraa led by Ahmad Awda, who controlled part of the region under an agreement with Russia, seized control of Daraa city and its countryside in early December. This led to the full withdrawal of Baath regime forces from all of southern Syria.
During the same period, HTS launched an offensive on Homs. As a result, regime forces withdrew from Homs without clashes, leaving the city entirely under HTS control.
At the same time, Russia, Iran and Turkey were establishing a new negotiation framework in Astana. The talks resulted in an agreement to halt military operations against HTS in the northern countryside of Homs. Russian aircraft bombed the Ristan Bridge, which connects Homs to Damascus. However, decisions made by external actors did not align with Astana’s calculations and understandings. Consequently, HTS continued its advance toward Damascus.
Attacks on the capital were also launched from southern Syria, and Damascus was besieged. On 8 December 2024, the attacking forces announced that they had entered Damascus and that Bashar al-Assad had fled to Moscow. On the same day, HTS and its leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (Al-Jolani) reached Damascus.
Despite the leading role of groups in Daraa and Sweida (Suwayda), Al-Jolani and his movement received support in Arab and Western media, while the southern groups that expelled the Baath regime from the south and entered the capital were largely ignored.
Turkish-backed mercenaries attempted to advance, SDF blocked them
In northern Syria, Turkish-backed mercenaries attempted to exploit the rapid collapse of the Baath regime and the chaos spreading across the country by expanding Turkey’s occupation zones in Northern and Eastern Syria. They launched heavy attacks in this context. However, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) responded to the attacks of the occupying Turkish army and its mercenaries on Manbij until 27 November 2024.
SDF General Commander Mazloum Abdi reached an agreement with the United States on 11 December regarding the protection of civilians in Manbij, and under this agreement, the SDF withdrew from the city of Manbij.
However, the occupying Turkish army and its proxy mercenary units continued their attacks on rural areas and the Tishrin Dam. The SDF defended the region and prevented any alteration of the existing territorial balance.
Despite pressure from the occupying Turkish state on the Manbij countryside and the Tishrin Dam frontlines, the SDF removed regime forces on 7 December 2024 from the rural areas of Deir ez-Zor (seven villages, al-Bukamal and al-Mayadin), Aleppo International Airport, and parts of the Raqqa countryside to prevent ISIS mercenaries from exploiting the regime’s collapse to attack civilians. After HTS reached these areas on 9 December, the SDF returned to its bases.
Israel destroyed military installations
After the fall of the Baath regime, Israel launched a large-scale air operation on 11 December 2024, fearing that HTS and its allies would seize the regime’s military facilities. The operation targeted military bases and positions, weapons depots and military airfields. It is reported that more than 90 percent of the regime army’s military infrastructure was destroyed. According to some reports, more than 120 military bases were demolished, eight airports and airbases were completely put out of service, and over thirty strategic missile depots belonging to Iran and its militias were destroyed. It is further reported that more than four thousand fighters affiliated with Tehran and Hezbollah were either killed or withdrawn from Syria.
Israel expands its control over the south
Although one year has passed since the fall of the Baath regime, there is still no functioning military institution in Syria, no army, no security forces, no police. HTS, which seized power in Syria, dissolved the army and security institutions, and the military sector has since come under the control of various groups presenting themselves as the Syrian army.
Israel has advanced in southern Syria by controlling areas outside the “border zone” established after the 1974 Tishrin War. It is now attempting to establish a buffer zone in southern Syria, in Quneitra, Sweida (Suwayda) and Daraa, as well as the southern countryside of Damascus. Israel has also taken control of Mount Hermon (Jebel al-Sheikh), located twenty kilometres from Damascus.
Tomorrow: The Transitional Government seeks to consolidate its power through violence.
Source: ANHA