Global warming, climate change, and the disruption of ecological balance have significantly affected Turkey’s agricultural production in recent years, as they have across the world. Rising temperatures and irregular rainfall patterns are shrinking the range of suitable climatic conditions for farming, making it especially difficult to grow crops with high water needs.
The decrease and irregularity in precipitation have increased the demand for irrigation, yet the scarcity of water resources makes it harder to meet this demand.
Flood disasters are rendering agricultural lands unusable and causing major crop losses. These developments not only reduce biodiversity but also threaten essential ecosystem services such as pollination and natural pest control, placing the sustainability of agricultural production under serious threat.
Climatic impacts on agriculture in Turkey (2021–2025)
Over the past four years, the effects of climate change on agricultural production in Turkey have become increasingly visible. Drought, water stress, and extreme weather events have placed approximately 26 percent of agricultural land at high risk, and 64 percent at moderate risk, of desertification and salinization. Improper irrigation techniques have further accelerated this process.
In the first quarter of 2025, agricultural frost, drought, and water stress caused serious damage to many crops, significantly reducing productivity. During the same period, increasing forest fires and deforestation policies also negatively affected agricultural ecosystems.
As a result of these developments, food prices have risen, farmers’ incomes have declined, and rural poverty has deepened.
The impact of flawed agricultural policies
Agricultural policies in Turkey have long lacked a scientific foundation and are shaped by short-term, reactive measures. Inflationary pressures and a heavy reliance on imported agricultural inputs, such as seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel, have driven many farmers away from production. By leaving agriculture at the mercy of the free market, current policies have made producers increasingly dependent on imported seeds, overpriced fertilizers, and costly energy. Meanwhile, locally adapted and climate-resilient seed varieties receive insufficient support.
2025 wheat and barley production: realities and expectations
A significant inconsistency stands out between the 24.4 million tons of wheat usage reported by the Turkish Statistical Institute for the 2022/23 period and the 11.7 million tons of wheat imports recorded in 2023. This discrepancy indicates that official data on production and consumption may not reflect the true situation.
In 2025, drought and agricultural frost led to a dramatic 40 to 50 percent decline in wheat yields. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated Turkey’s wheat production at 16.25 million tons, while local producers suggest the figure is closer to 14–15 million tons. With a national demand of 30 million tons, this results in a supply gap of 13–15 million tons.
Bridging this deficit through imports increases reliance on foreign currency and imposes a substantial financial burden on the national economy. The government’s explanation of this situation solely as a result of “climate change” falls short. The root cause lies in years of misguided agricultural policies.
Farmers are unable to plan what to sow, lack clarity on water management, and remain uncertain about the level of support they will receive. There is a lack of governance in the agricultural sector, and current policies are focused only on short-term survival. Subsidies for fuel, fertilizer, and seeds fail to cover rising costs. Eroded by inflation, these supports are leaving producers helpless and pushing them away from farming.
Agriculture must be recognized as a strategic sector, and policies must be designed accordingly.
To strengthen water governance, promote the use of renewable energy, preserve biodiversity, and make agriculture more resilient to climate change, the following strategic steps are essential:
The development and support of local seeds resistant to drought and heat stress; the expansion of drip and sprinkler irrigation systems; the implementation of comprehensive agricultural insurance in regions with high risk of drought and frost; and increased investment in R&D and farmer training.
Improving productivity through land consolidation and planting subsidies; establishing climate early warning systems; implementing erosion, salinization, and desertification measures to protect biodiversity; improving the agricultural credit system; and encouraging collective production models.
The crisis in the field is reflected on the table: As of 2025, food inflation has exceeded 37 percent; significant price increases have been observed in flour, meat, bread, and animal feed. While those living in rural areas are abandoning agriculture, young people are migrating to big cities.
Declining production due to climate-related factors, rising input costs, and insufficient adaptation capacity threaten food security.
Climate change is threatening agriculture worldwide; but in Turkey, the main factor deepening this threat is flawed and unscientific agricultural policies.
Unless an agricultural policy is built that centers the producer, supports small family farmers, establishes cooperative and union systems, prioritizes environmental sustainability, takes into account regional and ecological differences, and is based on science, production losses, food crises, and rural migration will continue.