Even if there is no war, the West and Russia will not renounce their interests

Western media outlets have been reporting that Russia will declare war on Ukraine. US and British sources even reported that the attack would take place on February 16. News agencies released satellite images of Russia’s military deployment to the Ukrainian border. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov blasted the West’s ‘Russian invasion of Ukraine’ rumours as information terrorism.

On the same day, Russian President Putin and US President Biden released statements which emphasised “dialogue”.

In the meantime, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz paid a visit to the Kremlin. Putin met Scholz and French President Macron on the same day.

So, will the Ukraine crisis lead to a war? What is the ultimate goal of the US, Russia and Europe? Is there a possibility for a further crisis in the region? What is the relevance of the natural gas and economic agreements between Russia and Europe? German-based journalist Yücel Özdemir answered these questions for ANF.

It was claimed that war would break out on February 16. Lavrov said that “the invasion allegations are information terrorism; Russia will continue dialogue with the West”. What’s going on in Ukraine?

British and American sources disseminated the claim that there would be an attack on February 16. There was no report of a possible invasion in the German and Russian presses. Of course, the US is making efforts to escalate the tensions. After all, a re-division of the world is in the making. The developments in Ukraine are part of the process of subjugating the former Soviet Union members and the regions under the influence of the Russian Federation by NATO and its allies, especially the US. In the early 2000s, the West gained the upper hand in Ukraine following the Orange Revolution in 2004 and the coup attempt in 2014. Now, it wants to continue the containment of Russia with the positions it has obtained. For this reason, they are trying to make Ukraine a NATO country. This seems to be the main reason why Russia resists and objects to it.

Is there a unified West? For example, Germany has reservations about the Nord Stream-2 Pipeline project. Germany receives 56 percent of its natural gas from Russia. How does this affect Germany? Moreover, Germany also mentioned sanctions.

There is not a unified West currently. The West is not in a position to fight Russia in Ukraine under the guidance of NATO and the US. Each country pursues its own interests. In the beginning, the US thought that it could convince its allies to cooperate. One of the objectives of the recent escalation by the US is to bring together Western Europe, especially Germany and France under its leadership, and restrict their relations with Russia. This is a plan and there would eventually be no war, but the US would assert its dominance over Europe. This is what is happening so far.

In the meantime, Germany and France have taken an aversion to the US plan. On February 7, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with Biden, and on the same day, French President Macron met with Putin. A day later, they made a situation assessment in Berlin.

So far, it seems that Europe, including Germany and France, will not say yes to everything the US requests. They say that if Russia intervenes militarily, they will respond economically, not necessarily militarily. We don’t know whether this will be the case. The previous day, Scholz was in Kiev and announced that Germany would not provide military help to Ukraine. It was important that he made this statement in Kiev. He added that Germany would continue to fight Russia economically.

Of course, the Nord Stream-2 Pipeline is the biggest topic of discussion. Germany imports 56 percent of its natural gas from Russia. But that’s true for the Nord Stream-1. The Nord Stream-2 has not yet entered into force. In fact, it’s over and some obstacles have been removed in terms of legal procedures.  Germany will thus become a natural gas tanker in Western Europe, which will help the marketization of Russian gas… And in this case, Ukraine and Poland will be out of the game. The US is trying to prevent it. One of the reasons for this is to put its own liquefied natural gas, namely shale gas, on sale in the European market. But the US is at a disadvantage in this respect as Russia has the edge in selling natural gas cheaper.

What about China’s Power of Siberia and Power of Siberia-2 projects? How do these projects change the game?

The US claims that if others don’t buy natural gas from Russia, it will be economically devastated, and a pro-Western regime will replace it. The aim of the US is to make Russia a Western ally against China in the future. However, Russia already has multiple options. If it does not sell natural gas to Europe, its economy will not collapse, because they have other options. As you said, it can export natural gas to China and has other pipelines via Turkey.

The Nord Stream-1 pipeline dates back to 1995, anyway. The Russians knew that they would face such a problem in this region. They have already worked on a project that would bypass Ukraine and Romania and directly sell natural gas to Germany. This plan worked to a certain extent and there was rapid progress in Germany during Schroeder’s administration. During this process, there was a thaw in the relationship between Russia and Germany. Both countries shared a “common fate”. Apart from natural gas agreements, there are various economic relations between Russia and Germany. In this respect, Germany is aware that when it confronts Russia, it will lose economically.

What does the Russian side think about this whole situation? Will Putin go to war? Is the Nord Stream-2 project something that may stop Putin?

When we look at the current situation, there is no possibility that Russia will invade Ukraine. A Russian invasion is mostly claimed by the Western news outlets. Moreover, it is clear that Russia will not be able to win a war against NATO in the long run. Russia has already captured Crimea and established its rule in Donbass. Russia’s main goal is to maintain the current situation and not to make Ukraine a member of NATO. I think that Russia realizes that it cannot control all of Ukraine.  It is important for Russia that Ukraine is not a NATO member, but Crimea remains indispensable for its interests.

In the West, there is the idea of ​​capturing the Donbass region or creating a minor conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which may lead to a huge Western military build-up in the region. They are pursuing a plan to arm Ukraine as much as possible and recognize it as a NATO member in this chaotic environment.

We can say that Russia has made a lot of effort not to make a wrong move. I don’t think that Russia will engage in a conflict unless there is a huge provocation. In the long run, Russia’s plan is to develop its relations with China economically, militarily, and politically against the US-led West which has contradictions. However, it should be underlined that there are also conflicts between China and Russia. This is one of the basic tenets of imperialism: they seem friendly, but once they get the chance, they undermine each other.

Recently, Putin made a statement saying that ‘our demands have not been fulfilled, but we are in favour of dialogue’.

The timing of the statement is important. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was also there. In fact, Russia’s aim is to disintegrate NATO from within. Russia seeks to keep Germany and France on its side by saying that “Yes, we accept your suggestions about Minsk” when Scholz was there.  So, Putin’s statement is not irrelevant. Even if there is no war today, the ultimate policy objectives of the countries will remain on the agenda. The US will not renounce its plan to contain Russia from the Black Sea, starting from Eastern Europe. Even if Russia withdraws its troops, there will be conflict zones among the imperialist powers in the future.

So, where is Turkey in this picture? It seems to be cooperating with NATO at the moment.

Turkey seems to be allying with NATO. However, it continues to sell lethal drones to Ukraine, and it is known that Turkish drones participated in the Ukrainian military operations in Donbass. Russia knows that Turkey is against it over the Crimea-Ukraine issue. I think that the Turkey-Russia relationship may lead to significant ruptures. Turkey’s credibility in Russia will gradually decrease and Turkey will suffer consequences in Libya and Syria.