Can: Turkey wants to stay at the negotiation table in Syria, Iraq

Celalettin Can, spokesperson of the 78’ers Initiative and a top member of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) said that Turkey wants to remain at the negotiation table with threats of chaos and conflict in Syria and Iraq.

Can answered ANF’s questions about the latest developments.

Why does Turkey need a military mandate for Iraq and Syria, and why was it extended for another two years this time?

This military mandate can also be called a bag bill. It covers many subjects together. The mandate mentions a “terrorist threat” both in Iraq and especially in Syria. The threat refers to the Kurdish Freedom Movement. There is no mention of how Turkey will deal with the Iraqi government’s discomfort with the violation of its territorial integrity. Turkish forces will enter Iraq and violate its territorial integrity. The Iraqi government will, of course, be disturbed, but this issue is not evaluated in the mandate. Turkey builds outposts and military bases in Iraq, citing the Kurdish Freedom Movement as a “terrorist threat”. With the ongoing operations and battles, Turkish military presence has become permanent in the Kurdish-controlled regions. Turkish troops are constantly present both in Iraq and Syria. The recent mandate legitimizes their continued existence. Turkey says that it is there to “fight terrorism” and “provide the security of the country beyond its borders”.

Is it possible for the Turkish army to stay in Iraq and Syria permanently?

If we consider the deployment of its troops in Syria and Iraq, the relationship it has established with the political Islamists, and the ways of its institutionalization, it becomes clear that this situation is not temporary. The recent mandate indicates that it will not be possible to be permanent there. One reason is that there is very strong resistance there. Another reason is that there are other interventions. The mandate does not weigh balance of power between the Turkish forces and others. In my opinion, Turkey seeks to make its military presence permanent with the threats of chaos and conflict. At least Turkey wants to remain at the negotiation table.

Can Turkey carry out a new invasion attack despite the US and Russia?

Eastern Syria is mostly under Russian influence and the US maintains its sphere of influence in the west of the Euphrates. The AKP-MHP government is planning to carry out a military operation in these two regions. In order to carry out these operations, Turkey needs the approval of the US and Russia, but it has not been obtained yet. It is difficult to get permission from them at the moment. An approval may be obtained from Russia for the west of the Euphrates, but there are several obstacles to do so. I do not think that these operations will be carried out despite these two states that carry out their activities in the West and the East in coordination. Can the one-man regime drift the entire state into an adventure? It is rumoured that closing two-thirds of the south-eastern border is being discussed within the state institutions. We do not know whether they can do it, but there are rumours about it.

Turkey deploys troops in the east of the Euphrates. Following Turkey’s provocative missile attacks around Kobanê, the Turkish army started to deploy troops in Akçakale. There is a line from the south of Kobanê to the south of Girê Spî and this line is on the M4 highway. Even if there will no military intervention, Turkey wants to break the connection between Kobanê and Cizîre. Just like they broke the connection between Kobanê and Afrin. I do not think that Turkey will get permission for this operation since the US has candid relations with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). This permission was not mentioned in the talks between Biden and Erdogan.

Why does Turkey want to attack the two regions?

Idlib is very strategic for Turkey and jihadist organizations. Turkey-backed Al-Nusra maintains control in Idlib. While Syria, Iran and Hezbollah want to carry out a ground attack, Russia wants to carry out an airstrike in Idlib. They want to get rid of Turkey’s influence there. For this reason, Russia and Syria are also deploying their troops in the region. This means that the Turkish troops are in jeopardy. Turkey is massing military units, but the regions it wants to carry out operations are Shehba, Tell Rifat and Manbij.

The US and Russia are claimed to have agreed on Syria. Do you think that the relations between Turkey-Russia and Turkey-US will be affected after Turkey’s military mandate?

Russia is collaborating with the Syrian regime. It is trying to secure Syria’s territorial integrity. The US considers the SDF as an ally. According to the reports, these two states are against Turkish aggression in the region, and they are holding reconciliation talks for the Syrian issue. If these two states are going through a reconciliation process, it remains a question whether they will allow Turkey to carry out operations in two regions.